Trade Algorithm Simulator — STD-TSP × Horizon Scanning

Horizon Scan Feed

Weak signal intelligence

Press Run Scan to simulate signal detection

FRICTIONAL LATENCY EQUATION

L(x) = D + T + I + B + R

Adjust variables. Route B wins when L(B) < L(A) — even if D is larger.

DAY-EQUIV. SAVED

0

Tied

ABSTRACT ROUTE MAP — FRICTIONAL LATENCY COMPARISON

[D] Distance [T] Traffic/Wait [I] Infrastructure [B] Bureaucracy [R] Risk Exposure

LOAD PRESET →

BASE METRICS

Base Transit Time (days)

Ideal travel time — zero disruptions

Holding Cost per Day ($)

Fuel, storage, delay penalties

[T] TRAFFIC VARIABLES

Traffic Delay Probability (%)

Probability (0–100) of severe congestion

Max Expected Delay (days)

Worst-case days if congestion occurs

[I] INFRASTRUCTURE RISK

Infrastructure Failure Prob. (%)

Road damage, port issues probability

Max Recovery Delay (days)

Days needed to bypass damaged infra

[B] BUREAUCRATIC FRICTION

Number of Checkpoints

Manual inspections, customs stops

Avg. Delay per Stop (days)

Average processing time per checkpoint

[R] RISK EXPOSURE (STOCHASTIC)

Disruption Probability (%)

Attack, closure, seizure probability

Impact if Event Occurs (days)

Expected delay days if risk materializes

EXPECTED L(x) — BAYESIAN WEIGHTED

7.8

day-equivalents

Efficiency

80

LATENCY BREAKDOWN

PROJECTED LOGISTICS COST

$1,170

7.8d × $150/d

ROUTE EFFICIENCY SCORE

CriticalPoorFairGoodOptimal